There is feverish speculation in Westminster that whatever the outcome of the Cabinet meeting, Theresa May will face a vote of no-confidence precipitated by her own Conservative Party.
According to party rules, 48 MPs must submit letters to the chairman of the 1922 Committee — the group that represents all Conservative MPs — to trigger a confidence vote in the party leader. The only person who knows how many letters have been submitted is Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of that committee. He has not said anything in public today.
The key to all of this: The European Research Group (ERG). It is a group of about 40 Conservative MPs who favor a clean break from the European Union and whose members have voiced deep concerns with May’s negotiating strategy. Until now, the ERG has kept its powder dry. But today, Conor Burns, a member of the ERG, indicated to Sky News that its position may be changing.
"There comes a point where if the PM is insistent that she will not change the policy, then the only way to change the policy is to change the personnel,” he told Sky, according to a tweet by correspondent Tom Rayner.
If she survives the vote, May would be immune from another challenge for a year, according to party rules. But the very fact of a confidence vote is hanging over May would be deeply damaging, and would add to the air of crisis surrounding her leadership.
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