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Saturday, December 1, 2018

George H.W. Bush was the most popular living president

He was, for instance, the most popular former president at the time of his death. That fact and four others are five of the many interesting electoral nuggets about the former president.

1. Bush had the highest average approval rating of any president of the last 50 years

Bush's average approval rating in office stood at 61%, according to Gallup. The next closest were Bill Clinton (55%) and Lyndon Johnson (55%). Bush's high approval rating may seem odd because he actually lost reelection in 1992. Unfortunately for Bush, he got unpopular at the wrong time and had an approval rating of just 34% in the final Gallup poll taken before he lost.

2. Bush won the lowest reelection percentage of any incumbent of the last 100 years

Bush took just 37% of the vote in his 1992 reelection bid. That was in part because of third-party candidacy of Ross Perot. Bush didn't stay unpopular for too long. Bush ultimately scored an approval rating of 56% just before he left office. That's higher than the other two presidents (Jimmy Carter at 34% and Gerald Ford at 53%) who lost a bid for another term in the last 50 years.

3. Bush was the only candidate to buck the third term penalty in the last 60 years

Bush succeeded fellow Republican Ronald Reagan in office with his victory in 1988. Reagan was term-limited after serving two terms. Bush's win was, to put it mildly, an incredible achievement. There have been six other times a party has tried to win a third consecutive term during the last 60 years (1960, 1968, 1976, 2000, 2008 and 2016). None of them pulled it off. Bush not only won, but he crushed Michael Dukakis by eight points and won more than 400 electoral votes.

4. Bush was the last Republican to carry Vermont in a presidential election

We now think of Vermont as a progressive bastion (see Bernie Sanders). From 1856 to 1988, however, it voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election but one (1964). Since Bush's 1988 victory, no Republican has won it or even come close to winning it. He was also the last Republican to carry Connecticut or Maine. In this way, Bush was the last appeal to the New England Republican who were once the heart of the GOP. In 2019, no member of the New England House delegation will be Republican.

5. Bush was the most popular living president at the time of his death

Earlier this year, Gallup asked Americans whether they approved of the job former presidents did in office. Bush had a 64% approval rating to only a 31% disapproval rating. Other former living presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton came close at 63% and 62% approval ratings, respectively. Both of them, however, had higher disapproval ratings at 36%. Nobody came close to Bush's +33 percentage point net approval rating.

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